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2027-12-31 前結果未知會判 Other；K 僅寫勝選即 Yes，結束日為 2028-05-30。主要差異在截止時間與結果不明時的處理。","KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31":"規則實質相同。兩邊都以2026年12月31日官方認定之委內瑞拉元首為準，只是 Polymarket 用12 PM ET、Kalshi 用10 AM ET，相差約2小時。Polymarket 另列 UN 名單備援與多重元首處理，但核心定義一致。","KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31":"Polymarket 以 Binance BTC/USDT 1 分鐘 K 線的高/低價判定，Kalshi 則以 CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index 現貨價判定。兩邊截止時間大致同為 2026-12-31 23:59 ET，但 Polymarket 觀察窗從 2025-11-24 14:00 ET 開始，Kalshi 規則寫從 2026-01-02 18:00 ET 開始。Kalshi 門檻用 above $99,999.99 等、Polymarket 用整數價位，且資料來源不同使判定有實質差異。","KXBTCMINY-27JAN01":"兩者都是2026年內BTC是否跌破門檻的「觸及型」市場，但P以Binance BTC/USDT 1分鐘K線低價（≤）判定，K以CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index現貨價（<）判定。P觀察期從2025/11/24開始，K從2026/2/5開始，截止時間同為2026/12/31前後（ET）。價格來源、起始日與等號定義不同，因此僅能視為相近而非完全相同。","KXALIENS-27":"兩邊的觸發主體與「明確承認外星生命或科技存在」定義相同，截止點也都在2027年前；Polymarket明列以美國官方資訊及可信報導共識為來源，Kalshi樣本未列來源，且Kalshi的close是交易截止而非判定截止。整體規則實質相同，僅來源揭露與收盤時間表述不同。","KXSB-27":"兩邊核心定義都是押同一隊贏得 2027 NFL 冠軍，主要結果實質相同。差異在 Polymarket 明確規定若賽事取消、延後到 2027-03-31 ET 後或無冠軍則歸 Other，且市場結束日較早；Kalshi 僅寫贏得 Pro Football Championship，關閉日標到 2029-02-13。整體可視為同一個冠軍結果，但截止時間與取消處理不同。","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31":"Polymarket 明確把 1–24 bps 降息算 1 次、50 bps 算 2 次，並計入非例會緊急降息；Kalshi 範例僅說 2026 年內降息次數，未明示緊急或非標準幅度如何計。兩邊截止時間同為 2026 年底（2027-01-01T04:59Z），但邊際定義可能不同。","KXUCL-27":"兩者都以2026-27歐冠冠軍作為YES判定，規則實質相同。Polymarket另訂淘汰即No、取消或延後至2027-06-19 23:59 ET後無冠軍則Other；Kalshi僅表述冠軍則Yes。多數Polymarket市場截止與Kalshi的2027-06-19 21:00Z相差數小時或約20天。","KXBALLONDOR-26":"兩邊都以2026年金球獎得主為準，但Polymarket明列法國足球為來源，並規定2026/12/31美東前未宣布得主則歸「Other」；Kalshi範例只寫得主勝出即Yes，未明列來源與無得主處理。Polymarket多數市場截止於2027/01/01 04:59 UTC（美東12/31 23:59），Kalshi為2026/12/31 04:59 UTC（美東12/30 23:59），約差一天；部分Polymarket市場截止2026/10/31。整體規則不完全相同。","KXISRAELPM-26OCT27":"兩邊都看2026年以色列選後誰成為總理，但 Polymarket 要求正式宣誓就職且排除看守總理，Kalshi 則以完成組閣並符合憲法要件為準。Polymarket 的決算期限是2027-12-31 ET，Kalshi 是2027-10-27，截止日不同。其餘核心定義大致相同。","KXMLB-26":"兩邊都指同一隊贏得2026年MLB世界大賽（Kalshi稱Pro Baseball Championship），勝隊定義實質相近。但Polymarket明訂依MLB官方資訊，若取消、延賽至2026-12-31 ET後或無冠軍則判Other；Kalshi僅寫贏得冠軍且收盤日在2028-10-31，邊緣情況與截止時間不同。因此規則不完全相同。","KXFEDDECISION-26OCT":"兩邊都以 FOMC 10/27-28 會議決議為準，但 P 明確用目標聯邦資金利率區間上限，並把非 25 倍數的變動向上取整到最近 25bp；K 的樣本規則未明示上限與取整方式。截止時間也不同：P 到 10/29 03:59Z，K 收盤在 10/28 17:59Z，約早 10 小時。","KXGOVCA-26":"Polymarket 以 AP、Fox News、NBC 三方都呼叫同一候選人為準，否則依官方認證；若 2027/7/31 前未確認，會轉為 Other。Kalshi 只寫依 2026 年選舉當選與否，截止日為 2027/11/3。兩者選舉與候選人相同，但確認來源、備援規則與截止時間不同。","KXF1CONSTRUCTORS-26":"Polymarket 依賽季最終站官方結果與 F1 平手／淘汰規則判定，並規定若賽季取消或未於 2027-03-31 前完成則轉 Other；Kalshi 僅寫贏得年度車隊冠軍即 Yes，截止日在 2026-12-21。兩者冠軍結果定義大致相同，但截止時間與取消處理不同。","KXNBA-27":"兩邊都是判定2027年NBA總冠軍，奪冠定義實質相同。差別在於 Polymarket 明確規定2027/6/30 ET截止及取消、延期、無冠軍時的處理，Kalshi 範例僅寫奪冠即 Yes，且關閉日顯示到2029年。因截止時間與邊界規則不同，配對信心多為 medium。","KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB":"兩邊都是看 2026 期中選舉後眾院與參院的政黨控制組合，核心結果相同。P 對平局／模糊情況有詳細 tie-break，K 則以 2027 年 2 月的控制狀態表述，且截止日不同（P 2026-11-04、K 2027-02-01）。因此規則非完全等價，配對信心多為中等。","KXPREMIERLEAGUE-27":"兩邊核心都是該隊是否奪得 2026-27 英超冠軍，但 Polymarket 明文規定若賽季取消、延到 2027-06-14 23:59 ET 後或無冠軍，會結算為 Other；Kalshi 範例只說奪冠則 Yes。Polymarket 多數市場截止 2027-05-30，Kalshi 截止 2027-06-13，且 P 有兩檔截止 2027-06-15。整體奪冠定義相近，但取消/無冠軍、來源與截止時間的處理不同。","KXPAHLAVIVISITA":"兩邊都是判斷 Reza Pahlavi 是否在 2026 年底前實際進入伊朗境內，規則實質相同。Polymarket 明確排除僅進入領空或海域，Kalshi 則以實際身處伊朗地理邊界內表述。截止時間都在 2026-12-31 前後，時區差異不影響同一結果。","KXMLSCUP-26":"兩邊都以贏得 2026 MLS Cup 作為 YES，核心定義相同；但 Polymarket 若在 2026-12-31 ET 前無冠軍會以 Other 處理，Kalshi 截止則到 2027-01-08。因截止時間與無冠軍處理略有不同，配對信心多為 medium。","CONTROLH-2026":"P 明確規定以投票席次多數判定控制權，若無多數則以新國會首位當選議長所屬政黨認定，並納入補選/決選與黨籍變更等細節；K 摘要僅稱「贏得眾院控制權」。兩者截止時間也不同，P 約在 2026-11-04，K 為 2027-02-01。","KXETHMAXY-27JAN01":"Polymarket 以 Binance ETH/USDT 1 分鐘 K 線高低價判定，Kalshi 則以以太幣美元現貨價是否高於門檻判定；來源與「等於/高於」細節不同。截止時間同為 2027-01-01 00:00 ET 前後，但規則非實質相同。","KXETHMINY-27JAN01":"P 以 Binance ETH/USDT 1 分鐘 K 線的 Low 判斷，期間為 2025-11-24 14:00 至 2026-12-31 23:59 ET；K 則以美元 spot 價格是否低於門檻、於 2027-01-01 00:00 ET 前判斷。P 包含 2025 年底且用「等於或低於」，K 用「低於」且題目為 2026 年，來源與起始期間不同。","KXMAYORLA-26":"兩邊都是押同一候選人是否贏得 2026 洛杉磯市長選舉，核心定義實質相同，且都以選舉結果為準。主要差異是截止時間：Polymarket 標示 2026-06-03，Kalshi 顯示 2027-06-02，相差近一年。來源與模糊情況處理細節未完整揭示，但結果定義一致。","KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17":"兩邊都以 IMF PortWatch 霍爾木茲海峽 7 日移動平均轉運呼叫數為準，截止日也實質相同（2026 年底／2027 年前）。主要差異是 Polymarket 用 >=60，Kalshi 用 >60，等於 60 時可能一邊 Yes 一邊 No。整體規則接近但非完全相同。","KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN":"兩邊都問 Pahlavi 是否在 2026 年成為伊朗最高領導人，但 Polymarket 採「實際行使國家元首職權」的實質控制標準，Kalshi 則採「被任命、當選、指名或繼任」的形式頭銜標準。截止時間都在 2026 年底前後（P 為美東 12/31 23:59，K 為隔日 15:00 UTC），相差不到一天。因此規則對「如何算上任」有實質差異。","KXLALIGA-27":"兩邊都是押 2026-27 西甲冠軍，但 Polymarket 截止在 2027-06-14 23:59 ET，Kalshi 約在 2027-06-06/07 收盤，期限相差約 8 天。Polymarket 若賽季取消、延後或期限內無冠軍會轉「Other」，Kalshi 範例只說冠軍隊即 Yes，取消/延後處理未明。除此之外，奪冠定義實質相近。","KXMEASLES-26":"P 以 CDC 麻疹計數器為準、僅計 CDC 通報病例，期間明訂為 2026/1/1 至 12/31 美東時間；K 範例規則只說 2026 年病例數超過門檻，未明列來源與時區。P 用「至少」，K 用「超過」，剛好等於門檻時判定相反。因此兩邊規則實質不同。","KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26OCT31":"Polymarket 以 Binance BTC/USDT 1 分鐘 K 線的最高價是否等於或高於門檻判定，Kalshi 以 BTC trimmed mean 是否曾高於門檻判定。兩者截止時間都落在 10/31 11:59 PM ET 附近，但價格來源與 >=/> 邊界不同。因此規則實質不同。","KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26OCT31":"Polymarket 以 Binance BTC/USDT 1 分鐘 K 線的最高/最低價是否觸及門檻判定；Kalshi 以 BTC trimmed mean 指數是否曾低於門檻判定。兩者截止時間幾乎相同（10/31 11:59 PM ET），但價格來源、等號與嚴格低於的定義不同。","KXNBAROY-27":"兩邊原則上都以2026-27賽季NBA新人王得主為準，但Polymarket明訂若無得主或賽季延後至2027/4/30後則歸「Other」，Kalshi則另設Tie/Co-Winners市場。Polymarket遇到並列時按姓氏字母順序選一人，Kalshi可結算並列選項，處理方式不同。Kalshi市場截止日（2027/7/8）也晚於Polymarket（2027/5/1），因此規則不完全相同。","KXFED-26DEC":"Polymarket 以 2026 年 12 月 FOMC 會後目標聯邦資金利率上限為準，並四捨五入至最近 25 個基點；若 12/31 前未有決議，則以當時利率上限結算。Kalshi 則看 Fed 官網在 12/9 會後公布的上限，且各市場採嚴格「高於」門檻。兩邊的門檻寫法（≥ vs >）與決議期限/備援規則不同。","CONTROLS-2026":"Polymarket 以 2026-11-04 04:59Z 截止，Kalshi 交易截止為 2027-02-01 15:00Z，時點不同。Polymarket 明文以多數投票席次判定控制，平票再由副總統與參院臨時議長規則處理；Kalshi 樣本僅寫「贏得控制」，細則未明。","KXNFLNFCCHAMP-27":"兩邊核心都是看同一隊是否贏得NFC冠軍；P以NFL官方為主並可採可信報導，K範例未列來源。P另有淘汰即No、取消或延後至2027-03-31 ET後轉Other等邊緣規則，K範例只寫奪冠即Yes。P到期為2027-01-25，K關閉為2027-02-22，截止日不同。","KXSATOSHIBTCYEAR-27":"兩者都以 Arkham 的 Satoshi 實體頁出現 Outflow 或 Swaps 為判定依據，結束時點同為 2027-01-01 00:00 ET。P 明確從 2026-01-09 13:00 ET 起算，K 僅寫 before 2027、未列開始時間。此起始期間差異可能影響是否同一結果，故非實質相同。","KXMLBAL-26":"兩邊都是押 2026 美聯冠軍，主要定義大致相同。差異在於 Polymarket 明確規定 2026-11-30 23:59 ET 前無冠軍就判 Other，而 Kalshi 的 close 在 2028-10-31。取消、延賽等邊界處理與截止時間不同，因此規則並非實質相同。","SENATETX-26":"P 以 AP、Fox News、NBC 三方判定2026德州聯邦參議員選舉勝者（含決選）；K 以是否於2027任期開始時宣誓就任德州聯邦參議員為準。兩者定義與截止時間不同（P 2026-11-04、K 2027-11-03），並非實質相同。","KXCAWEALTHTAX-26":"Polymarket 明確要求針對淨資產至少10億美元的一次性稅案，且需在2026/6/25前認證列入加州公投；Kalshi 僅稱加州億萬富翁一次性稅公投通過即為 Yes。兩者截止與門檻定義不同，Kalshi 規則較模糊。","KXFEDDECISION-26DEC":"兩者都以 FOMC 12/9 會後聲明與目標聯邦資金利率變動判定；Polymarket 明訂以上限計算並將非標準變動向上取整至 25 基點，Kalshi 樣本未明示取整但實務判定相同。截止時間相差約 5 小時（P 為 23:59Z、K 為 18:59Z），不影響同一會後結果。整體規則實質相同。","KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27":"兩邊核心定義相同：都以官方NFL認定的AFC冠軍勝隊為準。主要差異是截止時間：Polymarket到2027-04-01 03:59Z，Kalshi則在2027-02-22 15:00Z關閉。Polymarket另明訂若賽事取消或延期至2027-03-31 ET後仍無勝隊則歸Other，Kalshi樣本規則未見同等邊界條款。","RSENATESEATS-27":"兩者都看共和黨在第120屆國會參議院的席次，但P以2026年11月選舉（含之後決選）的結果歸屬為主，K則以2027年2月1日實際掌握的席次為準。P細則處理10月31日前未排選舉的空缺與當選人換黨／離職，K的截止時間（2027-02-01 15:00 UTC）與空缺認定可能不同。因此定義與時點有實質差異，精確席次配對僅能算中信心。","KXLLM1-26OCT31":"P 以 arena.ai Text Arena（Overall、關閉風格控制）在 2026/10/31 12:00 PM ET 的排名，判定「擁有最佳模型的公司」；K 則以 10/31 14:00Z 前「排名最高的 LLM」判定，且 K 樣本規則未明列資料來源與 AutoEval 排除。兩者雖可對應到同一模型家族，但 P 是公司層級、K 是模型層級，截止時間也差約兩小時。若遇同分，P 有分數與字母排序細則，K 未見同等明列，故規則實質不完全相同。","KXLEAVEWALZ-27JAN01":"Polymarket 只要 Tim Walz 宣布辭職或將辭職即可算 Yes，不必真的辭職；Kalshi 則要求他實際離開明尼蘇達州州長職位。Kalshi 也涵蓋非辭職方式去職，Polymarket 對無法辭職等情況可能直接判 No。兩者期限接近，但定義與判定來源不同。","KXLLM1-26DEC31":"P 以 LMArena 文字排行榜（style control 關閉）在 2026/12/31 12:00 PM ET 的排名、分數與字母序決定；K 僅寫 Dec 31, 2026 的 top-ranked LLM，未明列資料來源、時區與平手規則。兩者截止時刻相差約 2 小時，且 K 的定義不夠具體，故非實質相同。","KXPRESPARTY-2028":"P 以 AP、Fox News、NBC 三家同步判定同一政黨勝選為準，若到就職日仍未定則依實際就職者；K 則直接看 2029/1/20 起任期是否由該黨代表就職。P 市場結束時間為 2028/11/08，K 關閉時間標為 2029/11/07，截止時間不同。兩者定義與時間來源不同，非實質相同。","KXRECSSNBER-26":"P 的規則除連續兩季 GDP 負成長外，還可由 NBER 公開宣告衰退觸發；K 僅依 BEA 連續兩季 GDP 負成長。兩者截止時間相差約 13 小時，實質上接近同一期限。因 P 多出 NBER 觸發條件，規則定義不完全相同。","KXMESENATEPERSON-26":"Polymarket 以 AP、Fox、NBC 三家都判定勝選者為準，含決選，並規定候選人退換與獨立參選不歸入兩黨選項；Kalshi 則以候選人是否當選為準。兩邊截止時間不同：P 約在 2026-11-04，K 到 2027-07-07。整體結果可對應，但定義與時限不完全相同。","KXSOLMAXY-27JAN01":"Polymarket 以 Binance SOL/USDT 1 分鐘 K 線的高低價判定，觀察期從 2025/11/24 14:30 ET 到 2026/12/31 23:59 ET；Kalshi 以 Solana 現貨價判定，觀察期為 2026/1/1 至 2027/1/1 00:00 ET。兩邊截止時間幾乎相同，但資料來源、起始日與 above/reach/dip 定義不同，因此非實質相同。","KXMISENATE-26":"P 以民主黨/共和黨勝選為準，提名候選人若被替換會更新並依替換者判定；K 則是依特定候選人（如 Rogers、El-Sayed）是否勝選判定。P 以 AP、Fox、NBC 三方均判定為準，K 只寫該候選人勝選即 Yes。兩邊截止時間也不同（P 約 2026-11-04，K 約 2027-11-03），所以規則不完全相同。","KXABRAHAMSA-27":"P 要求該國正式簽署並被明確歸屬為亞伯拉罕協議（或其延續），且雙方政府公開承認；K 只要求以色列與該國在 2027 年前外交關係正常化。兩者截止時間相差約 10 小時，但定義與認定來源不同。","KXKASHOUT-26APR":"Polymarket 明文規定只要在截止前宣布 Patel 辭職或遭免職，即使生效日在期限後也立即判 Yes；Kalshi 範例僅寫期限前「離開 FBI 局長」，未明示公告即算，對提前宣布但延後生效可能判 No。兩邊截止大致以美東時間為準，但 Polymarket 另列官方資訊/可信報導為來源，Kalshi 來源細節較少。","KXTOPARTIST-26B":"兩邊核心都是指2026年Spotify最串流/榜首藝人，定義實質相同。但Polymarket明訂以Spotify官方年度報告為準，且2027/1/31前未公布會判Other；Kalshi僅寫2026年最串流，市場截止在2027/1/1 UTC，期限與未公布處理不同。","KXMLBALROTY-26":"兩邊都是預測 2026 美聯新人王得主，核心定義相近。Polymarket 若出現並列得主，會按姓氏字母順序判給其中一人；Kalshi 則另設 Tie/Co-Winners 市場。Kalshi 交易截止在 2026-12-08，Polymarket 多數市場到 2026-12-19（少數到 2027-01-01），截止時間不同。","KXGOVAK-26":"Polymarket 以 AP、Fox News、NBC 三家一致判定同一候選人勝選為準，否則依官方認證；Kalshi 則以該候選人依 2026 年選舉當選阿拉斯加州長為準。兩者截止時間不同：Polymarket 市場約在 2026-11-04 結束，Kalshi 則到 2027-11-03。Polymarket 另有 2027-07-31 未確認即歸「Other」的邊界規則，故規則不完全相同。","KXWNBA-26":"兩邊都是判斷同一隊是否為2026年WNBA冠軍，核心結果定義相同。Polymarket 明訂取消、延賽到2026-11-14後、冠軍隊未定或並列冠軍的處理，Kalshi 規則僅寫奪冠即為 Yes。Kalshi 的截止日設在2028年，與 Polymarket 的2026年期限不同，邊緣情況與時區處理也不完全一致。","KXLCPIMAXYOY-27":"兩邊核心都是2026年任一月CPI年增率達門檻，但P使用「大於」、K使用「至少」，臨界值定義不同。P以BLS月報為準且12月報告後不再計修訂，K僅稱年增率且截止日晚約一個半月。因此規則不完全相同。","KXBOND-30":"Polymarket 要求 2026-12-31 23:59 ET 前由 Amazon MGM 正式宣布下一任 Bond，Kalshi 只要求在 2030-01-01 前確定選角。兩者候選人相同但截止日相差約三年，且「正式宣布」與「cast」的認定與來源不同。規則不實質相同。","KXLOL-WORLDS26":"兩邊核心定義都是 2026《英雄聯盟》世界大賽冠軍，對同一隊的 YES 判定相同。Polymarket 截止為 2026-11-29 04:59 UTC（美東 11/28 23:59），Kalshi 為 2026-11-29 15:00 UTC，相差約 10 小時。Polymarket 另明訂延期/取消轉 Other 與多隊並列按字母處理，Kalshi 範例未列；正常情形下規則實質相同。","KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31":"Polymarket 以是否離開整個川普政府為準，宣布辭職或免職即可能提前結算；Kalshi 以是否離開特定職位為準，通常看實際離任。兩邊都指向 2027 年前，但「職位變動但仍在政府內」會造成判定差異。","KXAKSENATE-26NOV03":"Polymarket 明訂以 AP、Fox News、NBC 三方共同判定為準，必要時依官方認證，並設有 2027/7/31 未確認即轉 Other 的備援條款；Kalshi 樣本規則只寫候選人勝選即 Yes，市場關閉日為 2027/11/03。兩者在判定來源、截止時間與例外處理上不完全相同，規則非實質相同。","KXBUNDESLIGA-27":"兩平台都以 2026-27 德甲冠軍作為 YES 判定，主要來源同為官方賽果。差異在截止時間：Polymarket 多在 2027/6/15 03:59Z，Kalshi 為 2027/6/6 02:00Z；Polymarket 另明訂取消、延賽與 Other 處理。整體冠軍定義相近，但期限與邊界案例不完全相同。","KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27":"P 只需官方宣布特斯拉與 SpaceX 將被收購或合併（即使交易未完成）即可；K 則要求宣布最終且具約束力的協議，並導致控制權移轉或共同所有。P 允許部分出售只要取得控制權，K 的措辭也聚焦控制權或整併，但「最終具約束力」較嚴格。兩邊期限多以美東時間截止，但定義與舉證來源不同。","KXMLBNLMVP-26":"兩邊都是預測 2026 年國聯 MVP 得主，核心定義大致相同。但 Polymarket 若出現多人得獎會按姓氏字母順序判定，Kalshi 則另設 Tie/Co-Winners 市場，個別球員市場在平手時可能不成立。截止時間也不同：Polymarket 到 2026-12-31 23:59 ET，Kalshi 約到 2026-12-08。","SENATEOHS-26":"Polymarket 主要依 2026 年俄亥俄州參議員特別選舉的勝負結果判定，來源為 AP、Fox News、NBC；Kalshi 則要求民主黨或共和黨代表依該場特別選舉當選並宣誓就任參議員才判 YES。兩者截止時間也不同，P 約在 2026-11-04，K 標示到 2027-11-03。因此規則實質不完全相同。","KXMLBALCY-26":"兩邊同以 2026 年美聯賽揚獎官方得主為判定核心，但 Polymarket 明訂平手按姓氏字母、取消或逾期歸 Other；Kalshi 僅寫該球員獲獎即 Yes。截止時間也不同：Polymarket 多為 2027-01-01，部分為 2026-11-12；Kalshi 為 2026-12-08。故對同一球員的實質結果相近，但細則與期限有差異。","KXNFLMVP-27":"Polymarket 指 2026-27 NFL MVP，依 NFL 官方或可信報導判定，平手按姓氏字母，若延後至 2027/2/28 23:59 ET 後或無獲勝者則判 Other。Kalshi 明訂 AP 例行賽 MVP，市場截止為 2028/2/12。兩者獎項定義、來源與截止時間不同，規則非實質相同。","KXNHL-27":"兩邊都是押同一隊拿下2026-27年史丹利盃冠軍，核心定義實質相同。主要差異在截止時間：Polymarket以2027/6/30美東23:59為界，Kalshi顯示2029/6/30截止。Polymarket另有取消、延期與多重贏家的邊界處理，Kalshi規則較精簡。","KXNEWOUTBREAK-P-26":"P 以 WHO 正式宣布為準；K 僅寫任何疾病在 2026 年成為大流行，未明列判定來源。兩者結算截止時間也略有差異（P 為 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET，K 為 2027-01-01 15:00Z）。因此規則不完全相同。","KXUFCFLYWEIGHTTITLE-26":"兩邊都以 2026/12/31 12:00 PM ET 是否持有 UFC 蠅量級正式冠軍為準，截止時點相同。Polymarket 明列臨時冠軍不計、空缺判 Other；Kalshi 條文未明列，但就本題配對而言定義實質相同。判定來源皆指向 UFC 官方資訊。","KXTAIPEIMAYOR-26NOV28":"兩邊都在預測同一場 2026 台北市長當選人，主要依選舉結果判定；P 明確以台灣中選會官方結果為準，K 僅寫當選即 Yes。P 在 2027/6/30 前結果未定會轉 Other，K 未明列備援。最大差異是截止時間：P 為 2026/11/29（UTC），K 為 2027/11/28（UTC），時區與期限不同。","KXINSURRECTION-29":"兩者實質相同：都在2027年1月1日前判斷川普是否援引《叛亂法》部署美軍或聯邦化國民警衛隊，P以可信報導共識為準，K未列明來源。P要求正式宣布以該法為依據，K強調實際援引部署或聯邦化，截止時間相差約10小時。","KXMLBNLCY-26":"兩邊皆預測2026國聯賽揚獎得主，核心定義相同；但 Polymarket 平手時按官方結果或字母順序選一人，Kalshi 另有 Tie/Co-Winners，個別球員在並列得獎時可能不同。截止時間也不同：Polymarket 為 11/12 或 12/31 ET，Kalshi 為 12/8 ET，且 Polymarket 無結果時可結算 Other。","KXMLBNLROTY-26":"兩邊都以 MLB 官方資訊為主要結算依據，但平手處理不同：Polymarket 會依姓氏字母順序選出一人，Kalshi 則另設 Tie/Co-Winners。截止時間也不同，Polymarket 多為 12/19 或隔年 1/1，Kalshi 為 12/8。","KXRATEHIKE-2026":"兩邊都在算2026年升息次數，但P明確把25個基點算一次、50基點算兩次，並納入非例會緊急升息及1–24基點視為一次；K範例只說依FOMC在2026年的升息次數，未見相同邊際規則。P在2026/12/31 11:59 PM ET截止且可能提前判No，K則到2027/1/3才結算，截止與認定來源未完全一致。","KXMLBALMVP-26":"兩邊都判定2026年美聯MVP得主，定義與來源實質相同（官方MLB，必要時採可信報導共識）。主要差異在截止時間：Polymarket多為2026-11-13或2027-01-01，Kalshi為2026-12-08。Polymarket另有平手按姓氏字母排序、以及無得主時轉Other的邊緣規則。","KXNCAAF-27":"Polymarket 以 2026-27 CFP 全國冠軍為準，來源為 NCAA 官方或可信報導共識，並有延賽至 2027/2/8 後轉 Other、多方並列按字母等邊緣規則。Kalshi 以贏得 CFP 全國冠軍賽為準，收盤在 2027/2/23 UTC。兩邊標的相同但截止時間與部分邊緣定義不同。","KXUFCLHEAVYWEIGHTTITLE-26":"兩邊都在 2026/12/31 12:00 PM ET 檢查 UFC 輕重量級冠軍，核心標的與時點相同。Polymarket 明定只認官方冠軍、臨時冠軍不算且空缺歸 Other；Kalshi 範例只寫該選手是否為冠軍，未明列臨時冠軍與空缺處理。對這些具名選手結果大致一致，但邊界情況的規則口徑有差異。","KXUFCMIDDLEWEIGHTTITLE-26":"兩邊都在2026/12/31美東中午判定UFC中量級冠軍；Polymarket 明確排除臨時冠軍、空缺算 Other，Kalshi 僅寫 Title Holder，但實質上應同指官方冠軍。規則實質相同。","KXSERIEA-27":"Polymarket 與 Kalshi 都以 2026-27 義甲冠軍作為判定，定義與依據實質相同。主要差異是截止時間：Polymarket 約在 2027-05-30，Kalshi 約在 2027-06-14。Polymarket 另明訂延期或無冠軍時可能判 Other，Kalshi 樣本規則未見此細節。","SENATEKS-26":"P 以 2026 堪薩斯聯邦參議員選舉勝者為準（含決選），並須 AP、Fox News、NBC 三家都判定；K 則看 2027 年任期開始時是否由該黨人士宣誓就任參議員。兩者認定的時點與觸發條件不同，截止日也差很多。","SENATEIA-26":"P 以 AP、Fox News、NBC 三方判定2026年愛荷華州聯邦參議員選舉勝者（含決選）為準；K 則以2027年任期開始時民主黨/共和黨人宣誓就任該州參議員為準。兩者截止時間相差約一年，且P看選舉結果、K看就任結果，遇爭議或延宕可能不同。","SENATESC-26":"Polymarket 以2026年南卡參議員選舉勝選（含決選）為準，並要求 AP、Fox、NBC 三家都 call 後才結算；Kalshi 則看2027年任期開始時是否由該黨人士宣誓就任參議員。兩者判定時點與定義不同，P 在選舉日附近到期，K 的 close 在2027年11月。","GOVPARTYWI-26":"Polymarket 以 2026 威州州長選舉勝者為準，且須 AP、Fox News、NBC 三家都認定同一候選人；Kalshi 則以該黨代表在 2026 選舉後就任州長為準。兩者一個看當選與媒體判定、一個看就任，且截止時間不同，規則實質不同。","KXUFCLIGHTWEIGHTTITLE-26":"兩邊都以 2026/12/31 12:00 PM ET 的 UFC 輕量級正式冠軍為準，來源同為 UFC。P 明定臨時冠軍不計、空缺時歸 Other；K 範例以 Title Holder 判定，對所列選手結果一致。整體規則實質相同。","KXUFCWELTERWEIGHTTITLE-26":"兩者都以 2026/12/31 美東時間中午 12:00 的 UFC 次中量級冠軍為判定時點；P 明確只認正式冠軍，臨時冠軍不算，空缺時判 Other。K 範例僅稱 Title Holder，未明示臨時冠軍與空缺如何處理，邊緣情況可能有差異。","KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01":"兩邊原則上都以川普在2026年實際踏入該國領土或邊界內為準，但 Polymarket 明文包含陸地與海域領土且領空不算，Kalshi 則寫「實際到訪並身處地理邊界內」，未明列海域。Polymarket 期間為2026/1/1至12/31（美東），Kalshi 為發行後至2027/1/1前，起算與截止時區略有差異。整體結果相近，但定義與期間不完全相同。","KXMIDTERMHAPPEN-2026":"P 以2026年期中選舉是否於11月3日如期舉行作為判定，K 則要求全美50州在聯邦規定的選舉日如期舉行眾議院選舉。兩者來源與截止時間略有不同，P 截止較晚且允許可信報導共識。","KXMJSCHEDULE":"Polymarket 允許「完全除名」也算 Yes，且可用可信媒體共識輔助判定；Kalshi 則要求依《管制物質法》從 Schedule I 降到較低排程。兩者截止時間同為 2027 年 1 月 1 日前（美東時間），但邊緣案例定義不同。","SENATENE-26":"P 以選舉勝負為準，依 AP、Fox News、NBC 三方叫票結果判定，並包含決選與候選人替換；K 則以該黨代表是否於 2027 年開始的任期宣誓就任參議員為準。兩者判定基準與截止時間不同（P 約在 2026 年選舉日、K 在 2027 年），因此規則並非實質相同。","KXRECOGPERSONIRAN-26":"兩市場標的相同（2026年底前美國承認 Reza Pahlavi 為伊朗領導人），截止時點同為美東 2026/12/31 23:59。Polymarket 詳列「領導人」職位範圍、須為直接且無條件的聲明、排除假設性或支持性表態，並以美國政府官方資訊為主要來源。Kalshi 僅寫「承認」，未界定承認標準與表態形式，邊界情況認定可能不同。","GOVPARTYTX-26":"Polymarket 以 AP、Fox News、NBC 三家同步宣告勝者為準，並依黨提名人身分認定；Kalshi 則以 2026 年選舉後實際就職州長者為準。兩者截止時間不同（P 約在 2026 年選舉夜、K 到 2027 年就職後），且替補提名與獨立候選人的處理也有差異。","KXSAVEACT-27":"P 只要任何要求美國聯邦選舉登記或投票須證明公民身分的法案在 2026/12/31 11:59 PM ET 前生效即可；K 則限定 H.R.22 SAVE Act 在 2027/1/4 前成為法律。兩者定義與截止日不同，P 較寬且較早。","KXU3MAX-27":"兩邊都用 BLS 就業報告的 U-3 經季節調整失業率，取 2026 年任一月值，定義來源實質相同。差別在門檻寫法：Polymarket 用「至少」（≥），Kalshi 用「高於」（>），剛好等於門檻時結果相反。時程也不同：Kalshi 於 2027-01-08 截止，Polymarket 要等 2026 年 12 月報告出爐、最晚 2027-03-31 才定案。","KXFEDDECISION-27JAN":"兩邊都以 FOMC 1/27 會後公布的聯邦基金目標利率變動為準；Polymarket 明訂取目標區間上限，且非 25bp 的變動會進位到最近 25bp。Kalshi 範例只寫 Hike/Cut 25bps，未明列上限與進位規則，但對標準 25bp 級距結果實質相同。截止時間不同：Kalshi 在 1/27 18:59Z 收盤，Polymarket 到 1/28 04:59Z。","KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01":"P 只認 2025/11/17 至 2026/12/31 23:59 ET 間的赦免、減刑或緩刑；K 則認川普第二任期內、2027/1/1 前的同類處分。兩者起始時間不同，且截止時區／交易關閉時間略有差異。因此定義不完全相同，配對信心多為 medium。","KXARREST-27JAN":"兩邊截止時間同為 2026-12-31 23:59 ET，且都問同一人是否在 2027 年前被逮捕。P 明確列出符合的逮捕/拘留、投案、居家監控等，並排除未執行逮捕令、短暫留置與偵訊；K 僅寫「被逮捕」，邊界案例未明列。因此規則在定義與邊緣案例上不完全相同。","GOVPARTYNV-26":"P 以 AP、Fox News、NBC 三家同步判定勝選者為準，K 則以民主黨或共和黨人實際就任內華達州州長為準。兩者判定來源與期限不同，P 接近 2026 選舉日，K 到 2027 就任後。規則實質不同。","KXXRPMAXY-XRP-26DEC31":"Polymarket 以 Binance XRP/USDT 1 分鐘 K 線的 High 是否曾等於或高於門檻來判定，期間到 2026/12/31 23:59 ET；Kalshi 則以 XRP 的 trimmed mean 價格是否曾高於門檻，截止同為 2026/12/31 23:59 ET。兩者價格來源與價格定義不同，但門檻與截止時間大致相同。","GOVPARTYOH-26":"規則實質不同：P 以 AP、Fox、NBC 三家都判定同一候選人勝選為準，K 以 2026 選舉後實際就職為準；截止時間也不同（P 為 2026-11-04、K 為 2027-11-03）。P 另規定提名人替換時依替換人更新。","KXOAIANTH-40":"兩市場同指 Anthropic 先於 OpenAI IPO，但截止日不同：Polymarket 為 2027/12/31 美東 23:59，Kalshi 為 2040/1/1 04:59Z（約 2039/12/31 美東）。Polymarket 另有雙方同日 IPO、皆未 IPO、或皆無法 IPO 時 50-50 的邊界規則，Kalshi 樣本規則未見。整體定義相近但期限與邊界條件實質不同。","KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027":"P 以 Yahoo Finance 的 1 分鐘 K 線 High/Low、限正常交易時段，期間從市場建立到 2026-12-31 收盤；K 只看 2026 全年 S&P 500 最大值是否達門檻，未明列同級資料源與盤中判定。兩邊門檻寫法（8000 對 7999.99）近似，但期間、高低判定與資料源不同，非實質相同。","KXUFCHEAVYWEIGHTTITLE-26":"兩邊都以 2026/12/31 12:00 PM ET 的 UFC 重量級正式冠軍為判定基準，主要候選人對應相同。P 明文排除臨時冠軍、空缺時算 Other；K 另設 Vacant，且未明說臨時冠軍是否排除。交易截止時間顯示略有不同，但判定時點相同，邊緣定義仍有差異。","KXOSCARPIC-27":"兩邊都是押第99屆奧斯卡最佳影片得主，核心結果相同，但 Polymarket 明訂未提名即 No、平手按片名字母排序、2027/6/30 前無結果轉 Other；Kalshi 僅寫該片獲獎即 Yes，且有獨立 Tie 市場，平手處理不同。Kalshi 收盤為 2027/12/31，較 Polymarket 多數市場的 2027/3/14（部分 7/1）晚很多。","SENATENH-26":"Polymarket 以 AP、Fox News、NBC 三方均判定勝選者為準；Kalshi 則以該黨代表在 2027 年任期開始時宣誓就任參議員為準。兩者截止時間不同（P 約在 2026 選舉夜，K 在 2027-11-03），且 K 多了宣誓就任條件。因此規則非實質相同。"}}